It's time to talk about Israeli politics.
I have not been looking forward to writing this blog because the subject is kind of depressing, even by the standards of the decade we're in, which started with a pandemic and has also included the biggest land war in Europe since WWII and a massive, seemingly endless conflict here in the Middle East which might flare up again in a big way at any moment.
But there's a Knesset election coming up on October 27th and there's a lot riding on it, so here we go.
First, let's go over some basics.
For many years, Israel's supporters have repeated the mantra that it is "the only democracy in the Middle East" and that is still true. But it is also true, and no one should even try to deny it, that Israel's democratic institutions are in very bad shape. There are also many ways in which the ordinary people of this country have been made to feel like they are not being heard by their elected officials. If you've ever wondered why there's so many street demonstrations in Israel, that feeling of being unheard is a big part of the reason.
Every single one of the 120 MKs are "at large" and thus, not specifically beholden to anyone in particular. It's not like in America, Canada, or most European countries where members of Congress or Parliament come from designated districts or wards and the voters in those districts or wards can call a number and speak to someone who will brief their elected officials on what the phone call was about.
Another difference between Israel and most other Western democracies is that there is also no such thing as absentee ballots in Israel. Every voting age citizen is informed a few weeks in advance of the elections where their assigned polling place is. Often times it is the school where their children attend, which is usually within a short distance of their home address. If a citizen wants to vote, they have to come to that room, in that building, and put an actual paper ballot in an actual designated cardboard box.
If a person is out of the country on the day of an election, or even out of town (for instance, on vacation in Eilat when they live in Tiberius) they don't get to vote. It's that simple.
This old-fashioned method of voting has been ridiculed and criticized by some, but defended by others as being "unhackable" which is not an unimportant consideration in this day and age.
With all that in mind, and despite all the problems, voter turnout in Israel's national elections tends to be robust, and the election that will be held on October 27th will probably follow this pattern.
However, this coming election will be, just as the last several elections in Israel have been, a mandate on whether or not Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu should continue to be this country's Prime Minister. That is almost the only issue that's really on the ballot. There is a certain percentage of this country's voting age population who believe that no matter what issues, challenges, problems, opportunities, etc. this country faces, as long as Bibi is Prime Minister, he'll figure out how to deal with it all.
Literally, any time I try to have a conversation with any politically right of center person in this country, and I try to ask a question about any problem you can imagine, from relations with America and the EU to environmental issues, water, questions of war and peace, relations between different demographic groups in the country (Israel is VERY tribal), education, healthcare, housing, or anything else, the answer is always the same. It follows the pattern that these are indeed serious issues that require serious consideration but at the end of the day, "Bibi knows what to do about it" and that's all there is to it.
He's been in charge for so long, and things have continued to go reasonably well for most of that time, that many people simply can't imagine a problem he won't be able to solve or a challenge he won't be able to overcome.
So all we have to do is keep voting for Likud, or one of the other Right-of-Center parties that are always willing to be part of a coalition government led by Netanyahu, and he'll take care of the rest. According to this line of thinking, we don't need to do any serious thinking or problem solving of our own, because he's got it covered.
The worst part is, that among this group, it is also generally believed that Bibi will live forever and he'll axiomatically also continue to be Israel's leader forever.
Even to the degree that I personally agree with the first part of this mentality, I obviously don't agree with that last part, and I've been telling everyone who will listen for several years now that the leadership of the Body of Messiah in Israel needs to make a plan for what we'll do on that inevitable morning when we wake up and Netanyahu is no longer with us.
He will be celebrating his 77th birthday in a few days, and he has had three surgeries in the past two years that have been publicly reported on and he has also been treated for prostate cancer. I have no proof of it but my guts tell me he's had other health issues that are being kept secret from the public, and it's hard to even blame him for that. He knows that he must appear physically strong or Israel's enemies will think the country is weak, and they'll pounce on us. He also knows that many of his own supporters have stuck with him for so long because they think he's invincible and that could change very quickly if his physical health began to noticeably deteriorate.
Still, there's no hiding his age, and that fact that he's been working 80-hours a week, week in and week out, with hardly any breaks, for many years now. Most people half his age would struggle to keep that kind of schedule up for very long. I know I couldn't do it.
But somehow he does, and he has not given us any reasons whatsoever to suspect that he's thinking about retirement.
Therefore, my personal conviction regarding Benjamin Netanyahu is that he'll be a fact of life until his physical frame gives out, and that might happen any day between tomorrow and ten years from now, or even longer. But someday it WILL happen, and I believe that when it does, a lot of things will change very quickly, for better and for worse, in Israel and all over the world.
Some of the most radical and rapid changes will come in the Knesset, which brings us back to the topic of this blog.
If Benjamin Netanyahu is still leading the Likud Party on the 27th of this month, it is very likely to win at least 25 seats in the upcoming Knesset, possibly as many as 30. It is very unclear at this point if the other Right of Center parties which are running will win enough seats to make an automatic parliamentary majority. It is also difficult to see a path towards a coalition of Left of Center parties without including the Arab parties.
That would be a hard sell to the Israeli public since these parties are unashamedly disloyal to the State of Israel as it currently exists. There is much more that could be said about this topic, but it's all outside the scope of this blog.
The bottom line is that according to the latest polls and projections, any potential coalition of Centrist and Left-of-Center parties would have a very difficult time forming a governing coalition, while Netanyahu might also have a very difficult time putting together a governing coalition with the current constellation of Right of Center parties.
The wild card in all this is the Ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism. Shas is the party of the Sephardi Ultra-Orthodox Jews and UTJ is the party of the Ashkenazi Ultra-Orthodox Jews.
The Ultra-Orthodox parties have been, for a very long time, Netanyahu's favorite coalition partners because all he has to promise them in order to get them to join his coalition is large budgets for the schools, Yeshivas and other institutions that their communities rely on. After he gives them these things, they barely ever ask for anything else, just loyally vote for whatever he wants them to vote for and otherwise leaves the governing of the country to him.
However, in recent years, another issue has become more and more prominent and that's the IDF draft deferments that Ultra-Orthodox young men have been getting, almost as a matter of routine, for most of the past 78 years that Israel has been a modern nation state. Until about 20 years ago, give or take, this issue was an irritant for many people, but it wasn't urgent enough to cause serious problems for anyone. But starting around the mid-2000s, the unfairness of it really began to bother a lot of people and as the years went by, the practical implications of it began to also become more and more apparent. The IDF began to say that it did not have enough soldiers to carry out all the missions it was being asked to carry out, and the only large source of potentially available additional manpower is the Ultra-Orthodox community.
The steadfast refusal of the haredi rabbis to agree to a change in the status quo which would see large numbers of the young men in their community being drafted into the IDF has led to increasing anger in the non-haredi Jewish public, especially in the last three years that Israel has been in what almost everyone agrees is an existential war for survival. Tens of thousands of non-haredi Jewish men, and many women, have served for long months in the reserves, away from their families and jobs. Not a small number of them have been killed or wounded in action, and even those who were not killed or wounded suffered immense hardship, as did their families.
With this going on, it is very difficult to understand, or have much sympathy for, the continued refusal of the haredi rabbis to change their position on this matter.
Many people outside Israel, including Christian supporters of this country, have a difficult time understanding where they're coming from as well. In case you've ever wondered about it, I can recommend you read this blog. I don't endorse the author in any way, shape or form. But this particular blog explains a lot of things regarding this situation in a way that a non-haredi Israeli like myself can understand, so maybe you will find it of benefit as well.
The bottom line is that the haredi parties which Netanyahu has long relied upon to form his governing coalitions are not as safe a bet for him as they used to be and there is even a remote possibility that they will not agree to join his coalition after the coming elections unless he agrees to promise them that a bill to enshrine the IDF draft deferments of Haredi young men into law will be brought for a vote in the first few weeks of the new Knesset.
Never mind the obvious fact that the High Court of Justice has already made it very clear that such a law would immediately be voided if it is ever passed, and even if it's not voided, it will be deeply unpopular among Israeli voters, even many traditional Likud voters. That's one reason why the haredi parties are eager to assist in the neutering of the judiciary, what has in the past been referred to as "judicial reform."
Remember that term brothers and sisters, because you'll be hearing it again.
But even before that, Haredi draft evasion was an issue in previous elections, but it is likely to be a much bigger issue in the coming elections and the fact that Netanyahu will almost certainly not be able to form a governing coalition with the haredi parties will likely be a factor in how many people cast their vote.
Something that will almost certainly NOT be a factor anyone considers when they cast their ballot, is corruption.
I don't want to get too deeply into this topic because it's incredibly depressing, but the simple fact is that there are several people who are running for Knesset in the upcoming election who, at a minimum, should not be eligible to run for political office.
I don't even have to name names here. You can just ask your favorite search engine "have any Members of Israel's Knesset ever been in prison and if so, for what" and you'll see what I mean. If you want a bonus, you can ask the search engine if any of those who spent time in prison ever expressed any remorse or apologized for the crimes they committed and were convicted of.
Needless to say, Netanyahu is also on trial on several counts of fraud, corruption and breach of trust. This trial has dragged on for years. He's been testifying in his own trial for much of the last few years and he keeps having to excuse himself for urgent matters of state. It's become a running joke. I have no idea if it will have any effect on the upcoming election or not, but it might.
Conclusion
Brothers and sisters, I will end this blog as I started it, lamenting the deeply dysfunctional nature of Israel's democracy. I haven't even talked about local elections for mayor and city council in this blog, which is another deeply problematic ball of wax.
There is a great deal more I could tell you about the upcoming elections which would probably be of interest to regular readers of this blog, but I think I've given you enough to get some general ideas.
If you're reading this blog I assume you pray for Israel and to be absolutely candid with you, that's just about all any of us can do at this point. I will be fulfilling my civic duty by casting a ballot in this upcoming election but I haven't made up my mind yet who I'll be voting for. I've ruled out a few possibilities, and I might rule out more before getting up early on election day, as I always do, and taking the short walk to my youngest son's school so I can get it over with and get on with the business of enjoying a paid day off from work. There's always sales on election day and several of my favorite stores are also within walking distance of my home, so I plan on seeing if I can find some bargains. Maybe it'll cheer me up a little.
That's what I've got for you this week brothers and sisters. I hope it blessed someone.




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